{"id":8802,"date":"2020-11-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-11-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/araytor.com\/horitzons-no-tan-llunyans-i-la-llum-al-final-del-too%cf%89nel\/"},"modified":"2021-08-10T12:55:56","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T10:55:56","slug":"horitzons-no-tan-llunyans-i-la-llum-al-final-del-too%cf%89nel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/araytor.com\/ca\/horitzons-no-tan-llunyans-i-la-llum-al-final-del-too%cf%89nel\/","title":{"rendered":"Horitzons no tan llunyans i la llum al final del t\u00fanel"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span>L&#8217;assemblea es va produir en els dies 19 i 20 de febrer amb un panorama molt diferent a l&#8217;actual en el qual, la pand\u00e8mia iniciava la seva marxa i occident a penes comen\u221a\u00dfava a veure les orelles al llop.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vol\u00edem recordar-la per a oferir-vos l&#8217;article que va publicar Trias de Bes el 8 de novembre en el diari La Vanguardia, amb un missatge positiu i esperan\u221a\u00dfador de l&#8217;horitz\u00f3 que es desplega davant nostre.<\/p>\n<p><strong>&#8220;Prenc el t\u00edtol del c\u00e8lebre western protagonitzat per James Stewart i Rock Hudson del 1952, Horizontes lejanos , per traslladar a l&#8217;empresari, al directiu i al professional des d&#8217;aquesta tribuna un missatge d&#8217;esperan\u221a\u00dfa. L&#8217;horitz\u00f3 de sortida de la crisi no \u00e9s immediat, per\u00f2 no \u00e9s lluny\u00e0.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Som dins d&#8217;un t\u00fanel, per descomptat. Caigudes de PIB com les d&#8217;aquest any no s&#8217;han vist mai. Per\u00f2 no oblidem que, si b\u00e9 la mitjana anual del 2020 va rondar o superar un -10%, aquesta mitjana haur\u00e0 estat un resultat d&#8217;un primer trimestre d&#8217;un -5%, un segon trimestre d&#8217;un -17,8%, un tercer d&#8217;un +16,7% i el que finalment resulti del quart. El contrast del segon i tercer trimestres tampoc no s&#8217;havia mai vist en economia: m\u00e9s de 35 punts de millora de la taxa interanual d&#8217;un trimestre a l&#8217;altre! Aix\u00f2 tamb\u00e9 \u00e9s in\u00e8dit!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>I aquest sobtat creixement \u00e9s fruit del que sostinc en aquesta columna des que va comen\u221a\u00dfar la pand\u00e8mia. La crisi econ\u00f2mica \u00e9s fruit d&#8217;un ensorrament d&#8217;oferta i demanda que, al seu torn, prov\u00e9 de les limitacions a la mobilitat i mesures sanit\u00e0ries. No \u00e9s l&#8217;economia, est\u00fapid!, com diria, aquesta vegada a l&#8217;inrev\u00e9s, Bill Clinton. \u00e9s la pand\u00e8mia! Aquest creixement demostra que, com explico al meu recent llibre sobre la crisi econ\u00f2mica de la Covid-19, La soluci\u00f3n Nash , en termes econ\u00f2mics no s&#8217;ha trencat res, de moment. O s&#8217;ha trencat poc. I si les injeccions monet\u00e0ries arriben quan han d&#8217;arribar i a qui han d&#8217;arribar, podrem sortir d&#8217;aquesta crisi molt, per\u00f2 que molt, r\u00e0pidament i amb molta for\u221a\u00dfa. Aquest trimestre passat \u00e9s la demostraci\u00f3 palpable que la tesi que defenso \u00e9s certa. Tenim tamb\u00e9 la dada de la Xina, que va uns mesos per davant d&#8217;Europa en la pand\u00e8mia. I s&#8217;est\u00e0 veient el mateix patr\u00f3 de sortida que en aquest a&iuml;llat tercer trimestre nostre, on ja desconfinats, oferta i demanda es van normalitzar.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Per\u00f2 la conservaci\u00f3 de l&#8217; ocupaci\u00f3 i el manteniment del teixit productiu han de ser la prioritat econ\u00f2mica i social de les autoritats fiscals i monet\u00e0ries. Que es trenqui el menys possible!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Albirar el final del t\u00fanel, aquella llumeta que ens indica que el final \u00e9s a prop, es produir\u00e0 entre novembre i desembre. El doctor Baselga, en l&#8217;entrevista concedida aquesta setmana a RAC1, ens va indicar clarament que amb prou feines falten dos mesos per disposar de vacunes. Aix\u00ed que comencin les vacunacions podrem calendaritzar la immunitat de grup i aix\u00f2 permetr\u00e0 planificar en economia. Calendaritzar \u00e9s conditio sine qua non d&#8217;una empresa per invertir i prendre decisions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>I aix\u00f2 ser\u00e0 possible en un horitz\u00f3 que no \u00e9s tan lluny\u00e0.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><\/strong><em>Horitzons no tan llunyans<\/em><br \/>Per Fernando Trias de Bes<br \/>La Vanguardia. 8 de novembre de 2020<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"traductor-textarea form-group\">\n<div class=\"textarea-desti col-xs-12 col-sm-6\">\n<div class=\"form-control second-textarea\">Avui recordem la confer\u00e8ncia oferta per<span>&nbsp;<\/span><span>Araytor<\/span><span>&nbsp;<\/span>i realitzada pel refutat escriptor i economista Fernando Trias de Bes&nbsp;a l&#8217;Assemblea anual de<span>&nbsp;<\/span><span>APM<\/span><span>&nbsp;<\/span>de 2020.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"traductor-checkbox form-group\">\n<div class=\"row\">En l&#8217;edici\u00f3 d&#8217;enguany se celebrava tamb\u00e9 el 20 aniversari de l&#8217;Associaci\u00f3. En l&#8217;aplaudida confer\u00e8ncia el ponent plantejava models de gesti\u00f3 en entorns d&#8217;alta incertesa.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8452,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-noticia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Horitzons no tan llunyans i la llum al final del t\u00fanel - Araytor Corredur\u00eda de Seguros<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/araytor.com\/ca\/horitzons-no-tan-llunyans-i-la-llum-al-final-del-too\u03c9nel\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Horitzons no tan llunyans i la llum al final del t\u00fanel - Araytor Corredur\u00eda de Seguros\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Avui recordem la confer\u00e8ncia oferta per&nbsp;Araytor&nbsp;i realitzada pel refutat escriptor i economista Fernando Trias de Bes&nbsp;a l&#039;Assemblea anual de&nbsp;APM&nbsp;de 2020.    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